REFS is
a mine of invaluable information for the private investor.
Selecting shares without its help is like trying to
clap with one hand tied behind your back.
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DPS
growth
This line
shows, for each period, how much DPS has grown, or is expected
to grow, when measured against the previous period. A minus
sign indicates negative growth. DPS is compared on an annualised
basis.
The growth
shown in the columns for the last five reported periods is calculated,
in each case, by reference to the previous year’s normalised
DPS. For the following two forecast periods, it is the year-on-year
percentage by which DPS must grow in order to achieve the consensus
forecasts shown.
The calculation
is as follows:
Step 1:
THIS
YEAR’S DPS
- PREVIOUS
DPS
= DPS CHANGE
(+ OR -)
Step 2:
DPS
CHANGE
------------------
X 100 = DPS GROWTH (%)
PREVIOUS
DPS
In order
to ensure that a realistic measure of growth is achieved, it
is essential that comparison should only be made between DPS
figures calculated on a genuinely similar basis. This is particularly
important when comparing historic DPS (based on reported results)
for consecutive periods, or when comparing the last reported
DPS with a forecast for the following period.
When a preliminary
results announcement has just been received, and brokers have
not yet reacted, the composition of the consensus, upon which
the growth percentage is based, is arrived at by comparing the
newly announced historic DPS for the latest period with each
of the previously existing forecasts for the following period.
Individual forecasts are eliminated from the consensus when
the actual result (i.e. the newly announced historic DPS) deviates
from the forecast it supersedes by more than 5%. Superseded
estimates, and the consensus calculation, are explained in greater
detail in Broker forecasts.
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