
The
tables of shares with the lowest PEGs for growth companies
are my favourite hunting ground for candidates for my growth
share portfolio. I designed the tables to give subscribers
as much information as possible about the other selection
criteria that I regard as important. All of them are highlighted
in my recent book Beyond The Zulu Principle.
The
first point to bear in mind is that a PEG is only a quick
rule of thumb figure to give you a fix on a share’s
possible attractions as a candidate for a growth portfolio.
A very low PEG can mean that danger is lurking beyond the
horizon. A low PEG is not an end in itself – it simply
triggers the thought that the shares in question are worth
a much closer look.
The second and third columns of the market statistics are
of critical importance. If the one-month relative strength
is negative, it is usually sufficient to put me off buying
shares. I prefer growth shares to be performing well at
the time of purchase.
O’Shaughnessy’s research has also convinced
me that the past year’s relative strength has to be
positive. Usually I prefer it to be greater than the one-month
relative strength, but if this is not the case, it is absolutely
essential that the past year’s relative strength is
greater than the past three-month relative strength.
The highs and lows column is always of interest. Many investors
prefer to buy growth shares that are near to their highs.
At least they know then that the momentum is with them.
The PER is always of interest. I prefer PERs in the 12-20
range and rarely buy growth shares on prospective PERs of
over 20.
The prospective growth rate is of crucial importance. Reference
should always be made to the company entry to see if the
forecast compares well with the past.
The
forecast one-month change column gives a quick idea of the
revisions that have been made to the brokers’ forecast
during the previous month. Major downward revisions are
obviously bad news.
The ROCE column is important too and it should always be
looked at year by year in the company entry. A return of
20% or more is the kind of target you should have in mind
for a great growth share.
The last column showing the cash flow/EPS ratio is of great
interest. The company entry should also be studied to determine
if the previous year was a one-off or part of a trend. Companies
with poor cash flow usually need frequent rights issues
to top up their ailing liquidity. In the end the market
gets wise to them and the shares become unwanted.
It
is vitally important to remember that a study of the low
PEG tables is only the first step in selecting a growth
share. The low PEG attracts the eye and the key criteria
can be quickly checked in the other columns. If they are
all positive, the company entry should be the next port
of call, followed quickly by the company’s accounts,
brokers’ circulars and press cuttings.